How likely did Italian Unification seem by 1948?

By the start of 1848, Italian unification seemed likely to a large extent. Indeed, many new ideas had been exposed, innovative revolutionary groups had been formed, a new reformative pope was in power and people were beginning to create a link between their poverty and low standard of living and politics. Nevertheless, in some ways the unification of all of the Italian states, including the ones controlled by Austria, Lombardy and Venetia, seemed considerably unlikely. This was not only because of the power and influence of Austria throughout the Italian states, but also because of the lack of progress throughout the states (therefore people cared less about politics) and the conservative authority of the Church.

    The most important reason why Italian unification seemed likely by the start of 1848 was the bad economy, affecting the entire population. The economy was failing, as the population was rising rapidly but the amount of land being cultivated was the same. This caused widespread famine and soon people began linking their poverty to politics, creating a want for change. Additionally, many moved to the cities in hope for a better standard of living, but this sudden flow of people needing jobs and accommodation caused wages to decrease and generated overcrowding and a lack of hygiene. The low standard of living and poverty of so many Italians created unhappiness and revolt; however the Austrians used their military to crush any signs of revolution.

      The huge Austrian influence on Italy certainly did make Italian Unification less likely. Not only did Austria directly control the two richest Italian states- Lombardy and Venetia- and therefore a quarter of the population, but it also had indirect power over the main duchies: Parma, Modena and Tuscany. On top of this, the Pope controlled the Papal States, who often supported Austria, as they were a Catholic country, and made Italy even more conservative. This meant that the Austro-Hungarian Empire essentially controlled Italy, suppressing any sign of liberalism or nationalism, especially as it might spread to Austria, which was made up of many different populations (Czechs, Polish, Slovaks...) . This meant that most uprisings didn't succeed and liberal ideas were often suppressed. Nevertheless, some revolutionary groups did manage to be formed throughout this period.

       These groups included the Carbonari and "Young Italy", formed by Giuseppe Mazzini. Additionally, the new pope Pius IX began his reign with many liberal ideas.

Firstly, he freed political prisoners, which meant that more liberal thinkers were around Italy; persuading and rebelling. Moreover, he brought non-churchmen into the government. This made it less conservative and therefore made the policies in the Papal States more liberal. Above all, in 1847, Pius IX proposes an Italian Customs Union, where there wouldn’t be free trade throughout all of the states in Italy. However, this never occurred as Austria was horrified and counter-reacted by placing a military base in Ferrara, a very threatening location to the Papal States.

Your turn to decide! How likely did Italian Unification seem by 1848?!

The fact is, Italian unification only occurred in 1870, after a lot of help from other powers, but maybe without the obstructions of Austria, Italian unification would have occurred much sooner!?